In 2018, the steel market as a whole showed a tight balance, and the steel trade industry’s risk awa

Chen Xiaodong analyzed that the steel market as a whole showed a tight balance in 2018. The cyclical changes in steel stocks in all links were more sensitive, and the steel inventory in the central and western regions was consistent with the country. However, regional seasonality and resource mobility have made the steel market in the central and western regions special. Especially in the fourth quarter of 2018, the total inventory of construction steel in the steel industry in the central and western regions was 3,321,300 tons, of which the steel mills had an inventory of 1,323,700 tons and the social inventory was 1,998,600 tons. The stocks were swinging at the bottom for nearly half a year, plus 2018. In the year, the direct supply of steel mills increased, and the low stocks became the norm. In the fourth quarter, stocks in various sectors increased collectively, reflecting the fact that steel market stocks in the central and western regions fell and steel mill resources increased. During this period, the national steel inventories collectively declined slightly, indicating that the seasonal factors of steel supply and demand structure in the central and western regions are prominent. In 2018, the profitability of steel mills in the central and western regions was good, with an average profit of 700 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton. In November, the price of vanadium-nitrogen alloys soared, which led to an increase in the cost of steel mills. However, the actual cost increase was lower than the theoretical value due to the large process variations of various steel mills and the increase in raw material substitutes. In November, the profits of the national steel mills broke “three hundred”, and the central and western steel mills were at the edge of profits and losses and even lost money, which forced individual steel mills to stop production.

Overall, in the first quarter of 2018, market policy demand was suppressed; the second quarter began to recover, the third quarter policy signal changed, demand broke out, especially the cost of capital and the environmental shutdown policy was lifted, and the terminal accelerated the construction period. The steel market fluctuated and hit a new high. At that time, large-scale real estate developers in Xinjiang began to work, which once became the focus of the national steel market, and at the same time led to the recovery of the steel market in the second quarter after the systemic risk. In 2018, the low price of steel in North China and East China, the high point in the southwest and other regions, the annual maximum volatility of nearly 1,200 yuan / ton, the central and western steel prices are lower than the coastal area more than 100 yuan per ton; and 2018 The high price of steel in the Midwest, such as the Xi'an market and the Shanghai market, is very small, reflecting the fact that the actual demand for steel in the Midwest is good in 2018. Compared with the winter reserve profits brought by the “policy dividend” in the previous two years, the overall operation of steel trade in 2018 is difficult. The two wave steel prices at the beginning and end of the year fell by 700 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, which caused the steel trade industry to be “injured”. , risk awareness is enhanced. This is also the reason why the traders' winter storage is generally cautious.

Chen Xiaodong believes that a better wave of prices in 2018 is in July and August, which really gives traders profitable space. At that time, the daily turnover of construction steel in the central and western parts of Steel Valley Network was close to 40,000 tons, basically catching up with the volume of transactions in November 2017. Recently, the daily turnover of steel in the country has remained at around 150,000 tons, and the central and western regions have been around 30,000 tons. It is worth noting that the region where the steel market was strong in 2018 was transferred from the South China and East China regions to the northwest and southwest regions. In 2018, the opportunities for cross-regional resource mobilization in the central and western regions were even better. For example, “Northern North” started earlier, and arbitrage opportunities started many times. The price difference was as high as four or five hundred yuan per ton. Judging from the actual investigation of “Northern North”, the flow of steel in the fourth quarter showed an increasing trend. Due to the wide spread between the North and the South, the low inventory, coupled with the stagnation of demand in Xinjiang and other places, the internal digestion was blocked and the external sales increased. In November, the amount of outward resources of “Northern North” exceeded the planned amount, exceeding 1 million tons. The month continues to increase.

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