There are many opportunities in the steel market under the new development pattern

2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party and the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan". After China has built a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and achieved the first centenary goal, we will embark on a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way and march towards the second centenary goal. In the next year, China economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive trend. Under the new development pattern, there are many opportunities in the steel market. The author predicts that black products are expected to usher in a rebound in 2021, and steel prices will rise slightly compared with 2020.
 
China economic operation will be stable and progress
Considering that this year’s macro-level benefits are numerous, the author predicts that my country’s GDP growth rate is expected to reach over 8%. Specifically, this year's macro policy level will show the following characteristics:
 
First, the dual-cycle development strategy remains unchanged. The main driving force of my country's economic growth comes from consumption and manufacturing. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the country must unblock the domestic cycle and promote the domestic and international dual cycles. In 2021, the country will continue to expand domestic demand and increase consumption stimulus.
The latest data show that China’s manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reached 50.6% in February, 0.7 percentage points lower than that in January, and was above the critical point (50%) for 12 consecutive months (see Figure 2). The author predicts that my country's manufacturing PMI will continue to be above the line of prosperity and decline in 2021, and it is expected that consumption and manufacturing investment in 2021 will both increase by about 10% year-on-year.
Second, the macro policy will shift from "counter-cyclical adjustment" to "cross-cyclical adjustment."
Third, the trend of maintaining loose policies will not change, but it will enter the marginal tightening. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy should continue to be implemented in 2021, with special emphasis on the need to "not make a sharp turn." As my country's economy continues to improve, it is expected that the fiscal deficit rate will be reduced from 3.6% to about 3% this year, and the new special debt limit will shrink from 3.75 trillion yuan to 3.5 trillion yuan, or special treasury bonds will no longer be issued; social financing The growth rate is expected to reach about 11%, and the growth rate of M2 (broad money supply) will remain between 8% and 10%.
　　
Generally speaking, China economy will continue to maintain steady growth in 2021, and the steel market will operate in a good environment.
 

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