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Analysis of Shanghai hot rolled steel plate market during the Spring Festival

Analysis of Shanghai hot rolled steel plate market during the Spring Festival

Factory warehouses:  steel market inventories are both affected by the slowdown in logistics and the decline in the willingness of downstream replenishment. It is expected that the accumulative growth rate may slow down, especially for the short-term "unavailability" of origin, which will affect the local area. This situation is expected to be effectively improved in early March.
Social Library: Looking at the arrival situation from January to February, the southward movement of Northen steel will continue, and some will reach the market before the end of February. The pressure on the decentralization and collection of various ports is slightly less than in previous years. The time for this part of the resources to reach the market will be delayed by 1-2 weeks (especially the ports in North and East China will have a certain impact).
Demand: This year, the proportion of downstream return homes has dropped sharply. The steel stocks have been stocked for 10-14 days before the current epidemic control situation. The possibility of starting work earlier is higher. It is expected that work will resume before the Lantern Festival 2-4 earlier than last year. Zhou (According to our survey in the manufacturing industry, 70-80% of the companies still start construction on the eighth day of the first month).
Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, the supply will not decrease for the time being, but the consumption has increased significantly year-on-year, and the export side has strong support for the market. The epidemic is within a controllable range, and the market's popularity will likely continue.

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